Tuesday, July 25, 2006
Middle East war cycle
1) An Islamic organization (Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, etc...) provokes Israel by consistently sending rockets, suicide bombers or abducting soldiers or abducting citizens.
2) Israelis perceives Israel as the only place on earth were they can feel safe. Each time this strategic assumption is cracked the Israeli public opinion shifts. The government gets complete political backing to attack the enemy with a painfully strike (Zbang), so it will never happen again. The strength of the retaliation is proportional to the strategic threat on Israel.
3) The Islamic organization expects the attack and blends with civilians. The Israeli retaliation kill or capture the ones responsible. Innocent civilians that were in the wrong place at the wrong time are severly hurt.
4) Uncensored images of the innocent muslim (bodies) are circulated in the Arab media. The political leaders behind the Islamic organization leverage the terrible images to undermine Arab regimes that are not part of the Islamic revolution.
5) Eventually, the leaders of all Arab nations call Israel to stop the violence. If that doesn't help they call the US to call Israel to stop.
6) Israel retreats and enjoys a quite period of a year or so.
7) After that period ends, it starts all over again.
Your suggestions on how to permanently stop the violence are welcome.
2) Israelis perceives Israel as the only place on earth were they can feel safe. Each time this strategic assumption is cracked the Israeli public opinion shifts. The government gets complete political backing to attack the enemy with a painfully strike (Zbang), so it will never happen again. The strength of the retaliation is proportional to the strategic threat on Israel.
3) The Islamic organization expects the attack and blends with civilians. The Israeli retaliation kill or capture the ones responsible. Innocent civilians that were in the wrong place at the wrong time are severly hurt.
4) Uncensored images of the innocent muslim (bodies) are circulated in the Arab media. The political leaders behind the Islamic organization leverage the terrible images to undermine Arab regimes that are not part of the Islamic revolution.
5) Eventually, the leaders of all Arab nations call Israel to stop the violence. If that doesn't help they call the US to call Israel to stop.
6) Israel retreats and enjoys a quite period of a year or so.
7) After that period ends, it starts all over again.
Your suggestions on how to permanently stop the violence are welcome.
