Saturday, July 22, 2006
Military Goal: Preventing a Humanetarian Crisis in Lebanon
My country is at war. My parent's house is bombarded daily, and it's not a good time to talk about a humanitarian crisis in Lebanon. So I won't.
Instead let's talk about Israel's Defence Force strategy. Israel's strategy is based on Air raids, and commando units to soften the enemy resistance. As Stratfor points out, this tactic was copied right out of American text books. But if there is something that the US has, and Israel lacks, is the ability to withstand growing international pressure.
Until now, Israel's time window seems unlimited, due to sympathetic public opinion in the US. George W. Bush is not at his peak, but is strong enough to silence the French and UN voices calling for an early cease fire. However, if there is something that the US public is vulnerable to is humanitarian crisis.
Therefore, strictly from a military point of view, Israel prime interest is to prevent a humanitarian crisis in Lebanon.
Unitl today, the tactics was to impose a complete blockade on Lebanon. No seaports, no airports and no trucks coming in from Syria. There are several reasons for this :
Itai(1): Having learned from the Palestinians, the Syrian probably mix-up medicine, food and weapons on the same truck or ambulance.
Itai(2): True. Instead, let the UN send fresh water, medicine and supplies through Cyprus on ships. Syria cannot load warheads in Cyprus.
Itai(1): Most of the supply will probably reach Hezbollah fighters anyway. This is what always happens in wars.
Itai(2): Right again. Given the time constants of this battle (weeks) it is safe to assume that Hezbollah's bunkers are full with food, water and medicine anyway. The tradeoff balance is in favor of preventing a humanitarian crisis in Lebanon.
Itai(1): Without collective punishment, and a humanitarian crisis, there will be less pressure on the Lebanese government to give in.
Itai(2):
Instead let's talk about Israel's Defence Force strategy. Israel's strategy is based on Air raids, and commando units to soften the enemy resistance. As Stratfor points out, this tactic was copied right out of American text books. But if there is something that the US has, and Israel lacks, is the ability to withstand growing international pressure.
Until now, Israel's time window seems unlimited, due to sympathetic public opinion in the US. George W. Bush is not at his peak, but is strong enough to silence the French and UN voices calling for an early cease fire. However, if there is something that the US public is vulnerable to is humanitarian crisis.
Therefore, strictly from a military point of view, Israel prime interest is to prevent a humanitarian crisis in Lebanon.
Unitl today, the tactics was to impose a complete blockade on Lebanon. No seaports, no airports and no trucks coming in from Syria. There are several reasons for this :
Itai(1): Having learned from the Palestinians, the Syrian probably mix-up medicine, food and weapons on the same truck or ambulance.
Itai(2): True. Instead, let the UN send fresh water, medicine and supplies through Cyprus on ships. Syria cannot load warheads in Cyprus.
Itai(1): Most of the supply will probably reach Hezbollah fighters anyway. This is what always happens in wars.
Itai(2): Right again. Given the time constants of this battle (weeks) it is safe to assume that Hezbollah's bunkers are full with food, water and medicine anyway. The tradeoff balance is in favor of preventing a humanitarian crisis in Lebanon.
Itai(1): Without collective punishment, and a humanitarian crisis, there will be less pressure on the Lebanese government to give in.
Itai(2):
- Arab pride will never give in. It doesn't work that way
- As one of the retired Army generals said on TV, Israel is involved in a military operation, not a war. This works both ways.
- A humanitarian crisis increases the patriotic sentiments of the non-Shia Lebanese, and this will play into Nasrlala's hands.
- There is enough damage done to Lebanon already.
