Saturday, July 22, 2006


War Propaganda

I reminded today of the US invasion to Iraq, so I opened the American IPP report on Saddam , and searched for the word "propaganda". Suprizingly it has some striking similarity to the "propaganda" of the Hezbollah in Lebanon:

As the war progressed, Saddam continued to receive optimistic reports from the civil and military bureaucracy... These reports emphasized the Fedayeen Sadda attacks on Coalition forces, at least early in the fighting, the "failure" of the Coalition troops to enter most major cities. When gloomy reports did finally get to Saddam and Qusay they discarded them or considered the tidings to be exaggerated... The American were amused by the seemingly obvious fabrications of the (Iraqi) Information Minister, wondering who could possibly believe such declarations. The evidence is now clear: Saddam and those around him believed virtually every word issued by their own propaganda machine.

After Hezbollah looses most of its military power, it is very likely that the Israeli will issue a similar report on Nasrala.

'After Hezbollah looses most of its military power, it is very likely that the Israeli will issue a similar report on Nasrala.'

And after 3 years, when Lebanon turns out like Iraq, what will they publish then?

I think there is no question about Hezbollah being able to resist the bombardment and ground incursions in the next few months (as this will probably take a bit longer), but what happens then?

They have the support od Shia population, they will create new cells and the guerilla war will go on and they will probably be sending rockets across the border, even if in smaller numbers as now.
Jin shalom,

Guerilla war can be fought against an occupying force. Occupation requires the Israelies to establish roadblocks and fortify themselves in Lebanon. As far as I understand the news, the Israelies will hurt Hezbollah and then pull out. If this is done quickly enough, Guerilla tactics will not work.

Your assesment that Hezbollah is able to resist is based on the common opinion on the web these days. This opinion has been shaped after it took 3 days for the Israeli army to take control of Maroun er Ras.

This battle was the first big battle against Hezbollah fighters, and Israeli refrained from using Hellicopters and Tanks on the first day, because of Hezbollah rockets. The Israeli army has been reported to adapt and make changes (such as using unmanned airplanes to assist the ground forces). The next battles will be shorter.

As for bunkers, there are two options. The first one is to bomb them from air or artillery. This will confine the Hezbollah to their shelters and they will not be able to confront the Israelies on ground. The problem is that these shelters were built below resident houses which makes air bombing a problem. The 2nd option is to attack the bunker's ventilation system and litteraly smoke the Hezbollah out.

As for your first comment, if lebanon turns out like Iraq and will have a new civil war even in limited scale - Hezbollah will not have enough resources to send rockets into Israel.
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