Monday, August 21, 2006



The international force that was supposed to deploy in Lebanon is delaying. The Lebanese army does not seem to disarm Hezbollah nor it cannot stop it from rearming itself again. As stratfor indicates, no international force has declared that it is willing to disarm Hezbollah.

Meanwhile in Israel, many journalists and polititians hint that a 2nd round with Hezbollah or Syria is in the near future. It seems that Israel would prefer to increase its military budget on the expense of economical growth, but will not negotiate with Syria at this time. Negotiating with Syria now, would require the Israelies to give more and get in return less, much less. There is no confidence in Israel that the current Syrian government (or the next government to come) will respect a piece agreement. The memories from pre 1967 of Syrian artilery on the Golan Heights bombing the entire Galilei down below, cannot be forgoten.

Meanwhile in the Gazza strip Hammas is gaining confidence. Israeli intelegence reported that the negotiation on a joint Fatah-Hammas has failed and Hammas started hunting down the oposition Fatah members. Hammas has refued to the Egyptian deal in which they will release Gilad shalit and in return Israel would have promisses to release some prisoners. In response to this escelation Israel arested another Hammas official (vice prime minister). Most of the Hammas officials arrested by Israel can face an Israeli trial for terrorist activity they were involved with in the past. The intelegence also reported of a large ammount of explosives and Iranian money moving freely from the Egyptian-Gazza border (that was once in Israeli responsibility, but now is Egyptian responsibility).

Israel cannot afford the West Bank to arm like the southern Lebanon or Gazza, and therfore Olmert's disengagement plan, will be disbanded. In addition Haim Ramon, the polititian behind the West Bank disengagement plan, had to resign from the Ministry of Justice (after one of his former employees complaint to her boss that Haim Ramon hugged and kissed her against her will).

To conclude, at this point in time, it seems that a new arms race has begun.

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