Tuesday, August 08, 2006


Negotiating under fire

The Israeli government is expected to instruct (tonight or tomorrow) the military to go deeper into Lebanon. This comes after the short range Katyusha rockets keep falling on Israeli cities. The longer range missiles are being handled (relativly) well with air force bomings, and commando raids.

Israel knows that the negotiation on the disarment of the Hezbollah is coming, and that its ability to launch rockets on Israel gives it a stronger hand in the negotiation.

09-aug-2006 Update: As expected, Israeli Defence Force got from the government green light to start preparing for a deeper invasion into Lebanon. One thing was odd, that the army presented only one plan (and not several) to the goverment, practically saying take-it-or-leave-it.

19-aug-2006 Update : The Israeli government has delayed the deeper invasion only after the cease fire negotiation has complete (The gun is always more effective before it fires). However, we now know that the operation goal was mainly to boost the morale, and to show that after 30 days of fighting the army advanced more than a few killometers. In practice, since the time was short (about 3 days) before the cease fire started, the army hasted, and the Hezbollah easily spotted the tanks and fired anti-tank missiles. 35 soldiers were killed in 3 days, which is one third of the total soldiers killed in this war. The lebanese government did not wait for the international UM force and sent 15,000 troops to the south. This means that the Israeli troops that advanced will quickly retreat back as the Lebanese army takes control of southern Lebanon. The main question is : how much control ?

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